National - Key market indicators for June 2012 suggest much of the country?s housing market has turned the corner and is heading down a slow, but steady path to recovery.? The total US for-sale inventory of single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops (SFH/CTHCOPS) remained at historic lows with 1.88 million units for sale in June, down -19% compared to a year ago, and -39% below its peak of 3.10 million units in September, 2007 when Realtor.com began monitoring these markets.
At the same time, median list prices have been on the rise since the beginning of the year and now standing at $195,000, up 2.68% on a year-over-year basis. The median age of the inventory dropped to 84 days, which is down -9.67% on an annual basis.
Lower inventories, combined with rising list prices and a generally faster moving marketplace are positive signs that the market is gaining traction and entering a solid recovery mode.? However, markets remain fragile, and this emerging recovery could be undermined by adverse economic events or loss of consumer confidence.
Key National Market Indicators for June 2012
Local Markets ? With some notable exceptions, the majority of housing markets showed signs of continued improvement in June.? On a year-over-year basis, the for-sale inventory declined in all but 2 (Shreveport, LA and Philadelphia, PA) of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com, while list prices increased in 101 markets, held steady in 26 markets, and declined in just 19 markets.? This pattern is in stark contrast to trends observed in June 2011, when median list prices were down -1% or more on an annual basis in 79 of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com.
In general, local markets that experienced some of the highest foreclosure rates and largest list price declines since the beginning of the housing crisis are now registering the largest list price gains, while markets in the older parts of the Midwest and North East are losing ground.
Highlighted Market:? California ? One of the biggest housing stories of the second half of 2011 was the dramatic draw down of inventory in Florida, which was typically accompanied by large increases in median list prices.? While inventories in most Florida markets have begun to stabilize, a similar rebalancing process now appears to be underway in most major California markets, as well as in Seattle, Phoenix, and Atlanta. These patterns suggest that the stabilization and recovery process that began in Florida over a year ago is spreading to other hard-hit areas that originally bore the brunt of the housing crisis. See page 7 for more details.
National Perspective
Median List Prices ? The nationwide median list price in June for SFH/CTHCOPS rose to $195,000, roughly the same as last month ($194,900) but 2.68% higher than it was a year ago.? While list prices remained relatively constant throughout the 2011 home buying season, they have been rising steadily for the past five months, suggesting a growing optimism on the part of sellers.? While list prices are below their peak of about $250,000 in early 2007?when Realtor.com began tracking these data?the recent upward trend is a positive sign and serves as a leading indicator of future increases in housing prices.
For Sale Inventories ? The national for-sale inventory of SFH/CTHCOPS in June (1,886,690) was slightly higher (+0.52%) than it was in May but down -19.35% on an annual basis. Similar to the rising list prices this year, the consistent year-over-year declines in inventory is another positive sign that the overall market is in a stronger position than a year ago. ?Since the beginning of 2012, total inventory has averaged about 1.8 to 1.9 million units, the lowest levels since January 2007.
Median Age of Inventory ? The median age of the inventory of for sale listings was 84 days in June, ?roughly the same as the past three months, but -9.67% below the median age one year ago (June 2011).? While the median age of the inventory is highly seasonal, the year-over-year decline is consistent with other data showing a significant improvement in market conditions compared to one year ago.
Local Market Variations
For Sale Inventories (y/y) ? For sale inventories of SFH/CTHCOPS in June declined on an annual basis in all but 3 of the 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com, with for-sale inventory dropping -20% or more in 67 of the 146 markets covered.? While the rate of decline has moderated over the past few months, this pattern suggests the majority of markets are working through their excess inventories. The 10 MSAs with the largest year-over-year declines in their for-sale inventories in June 2012 are listed below.
For-Sale Inventory
10 MSAs with the Greatest Year-Over-Year Inventory Reductions
| June 2012 vs. June 2011 | |
| Oakland, CA | -57.92% |
| Fresno, CA | -49.10% |
| Bakersfield, CA | -47.37% |
| Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA | -42.85% |
| San Jose, CA | -41.98% |
| San Francisco, CA | -39.68% |
| Phoenix-Mesa, AZ | -39.50% |
| Stockton-Lodi, CA | -38.92% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino, CA | -38.08% |
| Atlanta, GA | -37.92% |
Only 2 areas experienced a year-over-year increase in their for-sale inventories? Shreveport, LA (+26.59%), and Philadelphia PA (+4.31%).? Increasing inventories in these markets most likely reflect the impact of continued weaknesses in local economies. Median List Prices (y/y) ? On a year-over-year basis, June median list prices were up by 1% or more in 101 of 146 MSAs, and up by 5% or more in 49 MSAs.? Median list prices were down -1% or more in 19 markets, while no markets experienced a decline of more than 5%.? The remaining 26 markets haven?t experienced significant changes in median list prices compared to a year ago. These results represent a steady improvement, and an indication that the majority of housing markets are beginning to turn around.
Median List Prices ? Largest y/y Increases ? While Florida markets continue to register some of the highest year-over-year increases in median list price, the increases are not as large as they have been in the past 12 months. However, top performers now include many major California markets and hard hit areas such as Phoenix, AZ and Seattle, WA, markets that also experienced large declines in their for-sale inventories.? The 10 markets with the largest year-over-year list price increase are shown below.
Median List Price
10 MSAs with the Greatest Year-over-Year List Price Increases
| June 2012 vs. June 2011 | |
| Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc, CA | 33.14% |
| Phoenix-Mesa, AZ | 32.19% |
| San Francisco, CA | 15.44% |
| Boise City, ID | 14.94% |
| Oakland, CA | 14.84% |
| Miami, FL | 14.34% |
| Fort Myers-Cape Coral, FL | 14.30% |
| Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV(MD) | 14.00% |
| Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV(DC) | 13.63% |
| Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA | 12.92% |
Median List Prices ? Largest y/y Declines ? For more than a year, markets that never experienced a rapid run-up in prices just before the housing crisis began have recently registered among the highest rates of list price decline.? June was no exception.? While the declines were not as large or as prevalent as they have been in the past few months, they illustrate the evolving nature of this country?s housing problems are shifting away from the sand states and into older, more industrialized areas experiencing the brunt of the economic downturn.
Median List Price
10 MSAs with the Greatest Year-over-Year List Price Declines
| June 2012 vs. June 2011 | |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA | -4.76% |
| Peoria-Pekin, IL | -4.76% |
| Toledo, OH | -4.35% |
| Syracuse, NY | -3.22% |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | -3.15% |
| Philadelphia, PA-NJ(NJ) | -2.95% |
| Reading, PA | -2.92% |
| Tyler, TX | -2.79% |
| Roanoke, VA | -2.75% |
| Knoxville, TN | -2.71% |
Median Age of Inventory (y/y) ? The median age of the inventory continued to be relatively high in coastal areas of the Carolinas and parts of Florida, although conditions have improved compared to a year ago. The areas with the longest time on market are shown below:
Median Age of Inventory
10 MSAs with the Longest Median Days on Market
| June 2012 vs. June 2011 | |
| South-SC-RSA | 147 |
| Myrtle Beach, SC | 137 |
| Naples, FL | 131 |
| Wilmington, NC | 124 |
| Reading, PA | 121 |
| Central-FL-RSA | 116 |
| Gainesville, FL | 114 |
| Punta Gorda, FL | 114 |
| West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL | 113 |
| Charleston-North Charleston, SC | 113 |
| Mobile, AL | 113 |
California markets continue to register among those with the lowest time on market compared to other areas of the country. The median age of inventory was also relatively low in Denver, CO, Anchorage, AK, Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA, Detroit, MI, Phoenix-Mesa, AZ and Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN.
Median Age of Inventory
10 MSAs with the Shortest Median Days on Market
| June 2012 vs. June 2011 | |
| Oakland, CA | 24 |
| Denver, CO | 33 |
| Fresno, CA | 43 |
| Anchorage, AK | 43 |
| Bakersfield, CA | 44 |
| San Francisco, CA | 45 |
| Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA | 45 |
| San Jose, CA | 45 |
| Detroit, MI | 47 |
| Phoenix-Mesa, AZ | 48 |
California: Where Has All The Inventory Gone?
The drawdown of inventory observed late last year in several key Florida markets later known as the ?The Florida Phenomenon? may be moving out west.? In fact, for several months Realtor.com data shows that while prices are on the rise in Phoenix, Seattle and in 10 California markets, inventory levels in these same markets have dropped significantly and the median age of inventory continues to decline.? These patterns and the rebalancing from The Sunshine State to The Golden State suggest the stabilization and recovery that began in Florida over a year ago is taking up residence out west.
In taking a closer look, all of these markets with the greatest year-over-year inventory declines in June, with the exception of Seattle, share both a history of extraordinary high levels of foreclosures and a related condition, negative equity.
Negative equity, which occurs when homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth, makes it virtually impossible for a homeowner to sell.? Though some 28.5% of homeowners with a mortgage were underwater or nearly so at the end of the first quarter 2012, California, Arizona, and Georgia ranked among the top 6 states for negative equity, with negative equity rates ranging from 35% to 49%.?The negative equity share of mortgages in California rose slightly in Q1 2012 to 30.5% from 29.9% Q4 2011.
Foreclosures: Another major factor in the overall decline of inventory is the very low level of foreclosures for sale. For example, REO inventory in California in June was down -48.8% from a year ago while REO inventory in Seattle last month was -45.43% lower than a year ago.? REO inventory in Phoenix was down -54.8% from June 2011.
| MSA | Total Listings: % YY ? | REO Inventory Y/Y | Negative Equity Share in State |
| Oakland, CA | -57.92% | -28.54% | 34.60% |
| Fresno, CA | -49.10% | -45.78% | 34.60% |
| Bakersfield, CA | -47.37% | -49.54% | 34.60% |
| Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA | -42.85% | -45.43% | 25.10% |
| San Jose, CA | -41.98% | -44.02% | 34.60% |
| San Francisco, CA | -39.68% | -13.83% | 34.60% |
| Phoenix-Mesa, AZ | -39.50% | -54.8% | 53.10% |
| Stockton-Lodi, CA | -38.92% | -38.87% | 34.60% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino, CA | -38.08% | -42.71% | 34.60% |
| Atlanta, GA | -37.92% | *data not available | 39.90% |
| Sacramento, CA | -35.95% | -46.31% | 34.60% |
| Pueblo, CO | -34.59% | *data not available | 34.60% |
| Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc-CA | -34.28% | 9.85% | 34.60% |
| San Diego, CA | -33.50% | -42.39% | 34.60% |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | -32.50% | *data not available | 49.1% |
U.S. Olympic Host Cities
| Host City | Year | Median List Price In Host Year | Median List Price? June 2012 | Median List Price: % YY ? | Total Listings? June 2012 | Total Listings: % YY ? | Unemployment Rate |
| Atlanta | 1996 Summer Games | $116,000 | $170,000 | 6.51% | 45,273 | -37.92% | 8.60% |
| Lake Placid | 1932 Winter Games | $27,700 | $464,450 | 7.02% | 142 | -4.80% | 10.10% |
| Lake Placid | 1980 Winter Games | $1,666,500 | $464,450 | 7.02% | 142 | -4.80% | 10.10% |
| Los Angeles | 1932 Summer Games | $21,000 | $350,000 | 6.06% | 24,717 | -26.40% | 10.20% |
| Los Angeles | 1984 Summer Games | $158,000 | $350,000 | 6.06% | 24,717 | -26.40% | 10.20% |
| Salt Lake City | 2002 Winter Games | $164,500 | $210,000 | 8.24% | 6,614 | -31.23% | 5.70% |
| Squaw Valley | 1960 Winter Games | $77,600 | $602,500 | 10.65% | 71 | -11.85% | 9.80% |
| St. Louis | 1904 Summer Games | $7,150 | $166,000 | 1.25% | 14,611 | -18.11% | 7.50% |
Atlanta, GA ? 1996: With increasing list prices, decreasing inventory and a low median age of inventory (68 days), Atlanta was a hard hit area now showing signs of stability. Though its unemployment rate is still higher than the national rate of 8.2%, the growing wireless and online retail industries are expected to increase job opportunities. The area is the home base of both AT&T Mobility and UPS.
- Olympic Highlights: Gymnast Kerri Strug led the U.S. women?s team to its first gold medal after vaulting on an injured ankle. In track and field, Michael Johnson set a world record for the 200 meter and won two golds while Carl Lewis won his 4th long jump gold medal.
Lake Placid, NY: This small village in the Adirondacks is a resort community with healthy real estate trends. Median list prices in the area are increasing while inventory counts are dropping, though unemployment is much higher than nationally. The area?s economy is based on tourism, mainly skiing and hiking enthusiasts from the Northeast and Canada. A recent tourism study indicates visitors are opting for shorter trips when visiting the area, which may be affecting the local economy.
- Olympic highlights (1932): Speed skater Jack Shea became the first person to ever win two gold medals at a Winter Olympics.
- Olympic highlights (1980): The famous ?Miracle on Ice? hockey game between the USA and USSR (the underdog USA team won 4-3). Speed skater Eric Heiden wins five gold medals, and sets a world record and four Olympic records.
Los Angeles, CA: Like Atlanta, this former Olympic city is experiencing signs of stability as inventories decline while median list prices rise. Unemployment, however, is still high at 2% above the national rate. Jobs are increasing mainly in the leisure and hospitality sectors, and more than 9,000 positions were added in May.
- Olympic highlights (1932): Victory podiums were used for the first time. Takeichi Nishi wins a gold medal in show jumping, the only Japanese athlete to win a gold in an equestrian event to this day. Tenth Street was renamed Olympic Boulevard in honor of the Games.
- Olympic highlights (1984): More than 14 countries including the Soviet Union, Cuba, and East Germany boycotted the games because the U.S. boycotted the 1980 Moscow games. Track and field star Carl Lewis appears at his first Olympics, and wins four gold medals.? Mary Lou Retton becomes the first American to win the gymnastics all-around competition.
Salt Lake City, UT ? 2002: Like other former U.S. Olympic host markets, median list prices are on the rise as inventory levels are on the decline. The area?s unemployment rate is far below the nation?s. Utah is expected to have large growth in jobs this year in the high-tech vertical ? with digital storage company EMC hiring ? as well as in the manufacturing, leisure and business service industries.
- Olympic highlights: Canadian figure skating duo Jamie Sal? and David Pelletier were awarded a second gold medal after a controversy involving the score of a French judge. Australian short track skater Steven Bradbury won a gold medal after witnessing three competitors crash during the semifinal and four crash at the finals. The first Olympics since 9/11 featured a patriotic theme, including the American flag that flew at Ground Zero and honor guards from New York?s police and fire departments.
Squaw Valley, CA ? 1960: Though it?s one of the smallest places in the world to ever host the Olympics, the community has a strong median list price?which grew in June?as well as decreasing inventory. Unemployment is higher than the national rate, though job prospects in the Placer County area are growing. Projections show a 43% increase in employment by 2020, especially in the areas of construction, transportation and hospitality?and recreational opportunities are plentiful.
- Olympic highlights: This Olympic Games features the first athlete?s village. Walt Disney produced the opening and closing ceremonies for CBS. Soviet Union athletes dominate the competition: speed skaters Yevgeny Grishin and Lidiya Skoblikova are the only multiple gold medalists, and the Soviet Union wins the most medals overall (21 total).
St. Louis, MO ? 1904: Positive real estate trends in the oldest U.S. Olympic host city include a healthy inventory level paired with a rising median list price. Unemployment is below the national rate, and long-term job growth is expected with small businesses leading the way.?St. Louis is also home to a number of companies recently mentioned as ?The 100 Best Companies to Work For? ? Build-A-Bear Workshop, Edward Jones, and Scottrade, among others.
- Olympic highlights: The event was part of the World?s Fair and lasted more than four months. American gymnast George Eyser, who had a wooden left leg, won six medals. The marathon took place during extreme heat and dust clouds.
Source: http://americasbestagents.net/blog/realtor-com-real-estate-trends-june-2012-data/
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